Nigeria
NGX liquidity drains ahead of Dangote IPO as market capitalisation falls over N15trn from May peak
Nigerian market analysis circulating in the week to 28 July indicates the NGX All Share Index, which reached an all-time high of 252,508 points in May 2026, entered a sharp correction in June with market capitalisation falling by more than N15 trillion. The consensus explanation is pre-IPO liquidity drain: institutional fund managers are reducing equity exposure to build cash reserves for the Dangote Refinery subscription, while retail investors are expected to sell existing positions to fund participation. Two compounding factors are cited — fixed-income yields approaching 20% continue diverting flows away from equities, and the approach of Nigeria's 2027 general election is expected to amplify selling pressure as political funding requirements draw on private liquidity. Analysts broadly characterise the trajectory as “down first, then up”, with the Dangote listing expected to be the single most important driver of the Nigerian equity market over the coming six months.
